USA Today predictions - global

USA Today has been running a great project called the London 2012 medal tracker, where based on the results of all kinds of events they're trying to predict the outcome of every single competition - award virtual medals - and then sum up the tally for each country. Obviously, with the huge amount of data available, they take quite a risk when trying to apply the same algorithm to all sports. And since they have recently come up with another monthly update, here are my two cents.

Not surprisingly, USA (42 gold medals, 89 overall) and China (35, 92) are head and shoulders above the others, with Russia (20,81) the best of the rest. The host country (15, 59) and Germany (18,56) are way behind, but I have a strong feeling the Brits could easily end up with 70-80 medals!

Digging deeper, let's take a look at a couple of horrible mistakes:

Cycling - road: Joaquim Rodríguez 4th, Mark Cavendish outside top 8. Now, let us look at the race profile:

 'nuff said!

Football: Brazil - 1st, Mexico - 2nd, United Arab Emirates, Korea, or Spain - 3rd
Watch out, Team Great Britain (featuring the likes of Gareth Bale and probable captain David Beckham) and defending champions Argentina. UAE are coming for you! Not.

Summing up, fantastic idea and all, but it could be improved so easily. In case of football, it just takes one intern to take a critical look at whatever the computer spits out. As far as cycling is concerned, even if you don't have the know-how, you could cross-reference your prediction with what the bookies think. Those guys are pros, y'know. (Here, not surprisingly, they all consider Cav the man to beat.)

Dear USA Today, thanks a lot, but please put more work into the 2016 edition!